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Thread: Major Chinese Factory Shutdown - 6 US Companies Affected?

  1. #81
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    We can add Exactrail to the list.
    https://exactrail.com/blogs/announcements
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    Okay... To tally:
    American Z line
    Atlas
    Exact rail
    Fox valley models
    Intermountain
    oh number 6... Where are you?
    Did someone say whitcomb?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Intermodalman View Post
    Okay... To tally:
    American Z line
    Atlas
    Exact rail
    Fox valley models
    Intermountain
    oh number 6... Where are you?
    Bowser......
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpwisc View Post
    No intention of being snarky, sorry if it came across that way. Let’s be honest, if Atlas moved its manufacturing back to the US, prices would jump significantly and most people wouldn’t buy it. I’m all for domestic production, but Americans have become conditioned to the low prices overseas production allows. We live in a Walmart society where most consumers care more about price (how many “prices are too high” threads have we already seen?) over supporting domestic production.
    Well, just put tariffs on the imports until we're competitive - problem solved ...

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    BLMA i read somewhere

    Steve
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nskale View Post
    Well, just put tariffs on the imports until we're competitive - problem solved ...

    I like that idea , then when i spend 40% more ( with shipping and duties and our low dollar ) than if i lived in the US , i wouldn't feel so bad lol

    Steve
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nskale View Post
    Well, just put tariffs on the imports until we're competitive - problem solved ...

    That would work if you were okay with completely collapsing our economy first. We got to see a hint of this in the agriculture segment already. If just China and Mexico increase tariffs on just corn and grains, the US would be in a recession within a season. ADM, CHS, and Cargil (among other large agro-businesses reply heavily on export sales. If they can’t export you can flush our economy down the toilet. World economics has become far more complex than that.
    Karl

    CEO of the Skally Line, an Eastern MN Shortline
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  9. #88
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    You left off MTL that I know of. I'm pretty sure there's another big one missing off the list...
    Bronman - "Trains and Legos... you can't have too many of them."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Intermodalman View Post
    Okay... To tally:
    American Z line
    Atlas
    Exact rail
    Fox valley models
    Intermountain
    oh number 6... Where are you?
    In addition to the already mentioned Bowser and MicroTrains ( apparently only the chassis for the FT), I know Wheels of Time and Railsmith have put out statements on how they are being impacted. I thought I saw something from trainworx too, but I can’t find it now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by aflica View Post
    BLMA i read somewhere

    Steve
    BLMA was bought out by Atlas a couple of years ago, so they don’t count in this discussion.
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    Anyone care to speculate whether there will be a big price shift in the used market, if there is a shortage of new releases? How long would such an effect take to appear?

    I am reminded of the 2008-2011 recession period, when the price of new 1:1 scale automobiles dropped but the price of used cars increased, with so many more people turning to the used market.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siegmund View Post
    Anyone care to speculate whether there will be a big price shift in the used market, if there is a shortage of new releases? How long would such an effect take to appear?

    I am reminded of the 2008-2011 recession period, when the price of new 1:1 scale automobiles dropped but the price of used cars increased, with so many more people turning to the used market.
    In the model railroading context I am reminded of the Atlas Code 55 shortage - can someone refresh me on the impact, if any, of that extended disruption?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Intermodalman View Post
    Okay... To tally:
    American Z line
    Atlas
    Exact rail
    Fox valley models
    Intermountain
    oh number 6... Where are you?
    Probably Bluford Shops.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siegmund View Post
    Anyone care to speculate whether there will be a big price shift in the used market, if there is a shortage of new releases? How long would such an effect take to appear?
    I'd suggest that it is inevitable that there will be an increase in the price of "used" equipment and that will happen fairly quickly.

    Availability of a product, or lack of it, can have two effects. The cost of used equipment does/will increase exponentially and used items will also become harder to find. That possibly applies more so with this situation as the time frame for items becoming available again (if they even do) is an unknown quantity.

    Assuming all companies involved will return to the market place (at some point) I think it is reasonable to believe that their "new products" will also bring with them a price increase as well and, quite possibly, a fairly large increase (relatively speaking) to compensate themselves for the loss of sales.

    In so far as the impact on the hobby goes, I think that depends on how the non affected companies react to the situation. Whether they take advantage of it or bide their time waiting to see what will happen. Any impact may also depend on whether the equipment wanted is available from other companies not affected. If they are, then the impact to you an I will be marginal other than not being able to buy a "preferred" companies product.
    Cheers Tony

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    Quote Originally Posted by Siegmund View Post
    Anyone care to speculate whether there will be a big price shift in the used market, if there is a shortage of new releases? How long would such an effect take to appear?
    The used market is not homogeneous -- the less n-scale familiar sellers who happen upon a lot of trains at a garage sale or in a basement or those that wind up with a collection when their spouse dies will not know the price / value of their units one way or another (or will not want to take the time and trouble to get every penny out of those items).

    Most of the hobby shops will likely want to capitalize on the situation to make as much profit as they can off existing stock (since they may not have as much variety of new stock for a while).

    Auction prices on some items will likely go up as people look to Ebay since they cannot get new items as readily but other items will continue to miss the mark for the mainstream consumers who are buying new items normally (e.g., non-running locos or mixed lots with lots of random stuff).

    The buyers who are pre-ordering new releases may look elsewhere to get their fix -- I am not sure where they are more likely to go to purchase things since I am not that type of buyer. Maybe some that are addicted to making constant monthly purchases will get waned off that bad habit (which is likely what the manufacturers are most worried about probably).

    All of these are total suppositions...
    Last edited by Mac; 9th Aug 2018 at 11:19 PM.
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    Rapido has, in its new newsletter, offered its factories to other manufacturers - details and myth busting are in the attached jpegs
    1.jpg
    2.jpg
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    That is a classy move by Rapido to help the industry. The myth busting also helps clarify the situation. Thank you Rapido!
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    What a class act and very well written message!
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    Rapido gets some new manufacturing business and also ensures the industry stays strong, its a win for us and for them
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    Wow. That's interesting. The only thing I would question is the unstated assumption that locos and cars have to be "super detailed." While I understand that many Chinese produced products have many more parts than a typical MT release, that doesn't mean that other manufacturers couldn't step back a bit from this. Yeah, that is likely blasphemy for many readers, but it's my opinion and it doesn't have to be anybody else's.
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